Friday, January 16, 2009
Most Americans have been told by the Bush administration and the talking heads that things will get worse for a couple of months, but then the economy will start to turn around and improve in the second half of 2009 after Bushco and Obamaco's bailout and stimulus programs kick in.
In fact, the smart money is saying that the exact opposite will happen.
Specifically, Marc Faber, Robert McHugh, Societe Generale, Mish and others are saying that the stock market is now in a bear market bounce, buoyed by the hope of the general population that Obama will turn things around. But that at some point after the inauguration, people will realize that Obama's plan won't stop the crisis, and that things are going to get worse.
At that point, they say, the market will really tank. See this.
Mish and Societe Generale think the market could tank very soon - say a couple of days after the inauguration.
Faber and McHugh seem to think the crash will come in the spring.
But they all agree that the exact opposite of what the mainstream talking heads say will occur: things will seem temporarily better, and then the market will crash dramatically.