BP and the Government Are Underplaying the Difficulty of Stopping the Oil Leak → Washingtons Blog
BP and the Government Are Underplaying the Difficulty of Stopping the Oil Leak - Washingtons Blog

Thursday, August 19, 2010

BP and the Government Are Underplaying the Difficulty of Stopping the Oil Leak


While BP and the government say that permanently capping the oil well is no problem, they act like they have little idea of what they're doing.

Indeed, Admiral Thad Allen is now saying "We’re concerned about the vital signs of this well":

YouTube Video

He's also saying that completion of relief well will be delayed until mid-September, at the earliest, and that the government is looking for problematic “material” in the well:

YouTube Video

What's really going on?

Well, initially, if the well had structural integrity, there wouldn't be concern about the "vital signs" of the well, there wouldn't have been delay after delay in completing the relief wells, there wouldn't be never-ending rounds of new tests, there wouldn't have been an attempt to seal it (or perhaps more accurately, patch it) from the top using cement, there wouldn't be an attempt to remove "material" from the well.

Indeed, what does "removing material" even mean? Does that mean removing crumpled casing or drill pipe, or does it mean clearing out caved-in portions of the well and trying to rebuild those portions from scratch?

Moreover, one of the world's top experts in oil drilling disasters - Dr. Robert Bea - told me yesterday that the geology underneath the seafloor at the leak site is fractured, and includes very loose salt formations. This geology may make it very hard to kill the well, even using relief wells, and he says that we may never be able to kill it. He also said that there are uncorroborated reports of additional leaks other than the main well, but that BP isn't sharing enough information to be able to assess whether or not that there are additional leaks. (Dr. Bea told me that BP is using a "cloak of silence", and is refusing to even show the government videos of what the seafloor looked like before the April explosion).

So instead of simply trying to cap an existing well, it may be more accurate to think of this as trying to build a new well - or at least trying to duck tape the old one - so that it has enough integrity to be permanently stopped.

Update: Admiral Thad Allen just confirmed in a press briefing some of what I wrote above, saying that a collapse of the formation surrounding the wellbore (rather than concrete) might be what is blocking the bottom portion of the cement:

YouTube Video

6 comments:

  1. "BP is using a "cloak of silence", and is refusing to even show the government videos of what the seafloor looked like before the April explosion".

    It would have only been logical to put BP under direct government control (either by expropriation, militarization or whatever system available legally) since the very moment they began trying to obstruct solving the problem. Only a weak government can allow itself to be manipulated this way by a private company against its own interests and those of its citizens, its economy and its environmental integrity. It's a suicidal attitude for the government (politicians) and, more importantly, for the country.

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  2. Haven't BP/Unified Command been underplaying the spew since the beginning, knowing full well that it's nigh impossible to kill it, and the surrounding seeps created by the compromised well integrity, and subsequent blowout? It seems to me that the entire kabuki of failed attempts to stop the spew has been a stall, in hopes that the well would depressurize itself to not much worse than a natural seep, which would then justify washing their hands of it, and departing the scene of the crime.

    In the mean time the rest of BP's and the US government's efforts have been solely for the purpose of decreasing BP's liability, by managing perception of how much oil is spewing, washing ashore, killing the ecosystem, contaminating sea food and Gulf tourism destinations, and destroying the livelihoods of those whose jobs depend on the Gulf.

    So, rather than underplaying, they are intentionally deceiving the public as to the reality of their technological incompetence and impotence, which is an indictment of both BP and the US government (MMS). Admitting to the technological inability to actually stop the spew would theoretically have to result in a moratorium on future deepwater drilling, except for the fact that it has been made quite clear that the environment and humans are now considered expendable, since the energy extraction industries have been granted priority in the national security policy of the United States.

    BK Lim has a theory that we've been watching an entirely staged event, and not the blown-out well, ever since the ROV video feed has been posted on the web. http://bklim.newsvine.com/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Haven't BP/Unified Command been underplaying the spew since the beginning, knowing full well that it's nigh impossible to kill it, and the surrounding seeps created by the compromised well integrity, and subsequent blowout? It seems to me that the entire kabuki of failed attempts to stop the spew has been a stall, in hopes that the well would depressurize itself to not much worse than a natural seep, which would then justify washing their hands of it, and departing the scene of the crime.

    In the mean time the rest of BP's and the US government's efforts have been solely for the purpose of decreasing BP's liability, by managing perception of how much oil is spewing, washing ashore, killing the ecosystem, contaminating sea food and Gulf tourism destinations, and destroying the livelihoods of those whose jobs depend on the Gulf.

    So, rather than underplaying, they are intentionally deceiving the public as to the reality of their technological incompetence and impotence, which is an indictment of both BP and the US government (MMS). Admitting to the technological inability to actually stop the spew would theoretically have to result in a moratorium on future deepwater drilling, except for the fact that it has been made quite clear that the environment and humans are now considered expendable, since the energy extraction industries have been granted priority in the national security policy of the United States.

    BK Lim has a theory that we've been watching an entirely staged event, and not the blown-out well, ever since the ROV video feed has been posted on the web. http://bklim.newsvine.com/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry for the double post. When my first post failed to appear I failed to note the 'Your comment will be visible after approval.' message, seeing as your instructions state: "Because we do not read all of the comments, I am not responsible for any unlawful or distasteful comments."

    Maju: I don't believe that the US government is "being manipulated by a private company against its own interests." The hard truth that this incident is teaching us is that those who have control of our government are allied with, if not entirely owned by the military industrial complex and energy extraction industry, for whom the US military performs protection duty, and from whom it requires its 'stuff of life': fuel.

    Shedding the illusion that the government serves the people makes it simpler to understand why the events surrounding the BP oil spew have played out the way they have, with the government acting as facilitator and mouthpiece for BP's real oil spill response plan to limit its liability
    -----
    One can see a logic to the timing of Matt Simmons' death on August 8, if his passing was not natural: Until the static kill and subsequent declarations that the spew had been stopped, and the oil dissolved, dispersed and no longer a problem....as long as the story was the spew, then Matt Simmons' voice was not threatening to BP. Once the narrative changed to winding down the cleanup response, pretending that the spew had stopped, he had to be silenced.

    But then, one wonders why the ROV feeds were continued, showing evidence of increased seepage from the sea floor, suggesting that the oil and methane was escaping the well through the substrata, because the well bore had been breached, and thus demonstrating that the spew had not been stopped, and there was still need to attempt a bottom kill.

    Perhaps this is to prepare us to accept that this seepage is no worse than natural seepage.

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  5. AR: we agree. The difference is in wording and that I was pointing how a sovereign government of any ideology should act. This situation is like feudalism (the power of the state is appropriated by private entities) or colonialism (but actually the colonial companies are not even foreigner: BP is mostly US-owned).

    When the wealthiest and, by all accounts, most powerful state on Earth bows to the petty interests of some private parties even when it causes such massive damage, it just means that the state does not exist anymore: it's fictional, not better than the Mogul Empire under the East India Company's protectorate, not stronger than the Holy Roman Empire.

    I also find Simmons' death highly suspicious (in circumstances and timing) but I don't know what to think of the rovers' images other than they are there to hide all what is not being shown (i.e. that they only show a very small and carefully censored fragment of the atrocity, the proverbial tree that hides the forest) and that they are maybe a compromise with the more honest elements in the US bureaucracy, whose objective interests (not mediating bribery) are not the same as those of BP (they are those of a healthy state and accountancy good enough so their posts are not at risk).

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  6. Wow. Reading these comments and I actually have hope for our future. I really do. Washington - thank you!!

    ReplyDelete

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